HUGE MARKET RISK in January 2021 | Make or Break for Global Markets!

 HUGE MARKET RISK in January 2021 | Make or Break for Global Markets!

Hi! This is Harsh koradia. Welcome to my Blog.

Now,

The Nifty has been rallying. It was a Dream rally.

In September Nifty Expired about 10,800, now it is around 13,800 which is a 3000 points rally.

And Bank Nifty rallied about 10,000 points which is a 50% rally. 

Now, Everybody is asking a Question?

"How Long This Rally Will Continue?" 

"When Market May Reverse?"

"What Is The Triggered?"

Is There Any Event...? Which can trigger either a further rally or reversal of the trend.

And I am here to discuss about The Key Event which is likely to trigger either another leg of rally or a reversal.
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To make things simple, let me give you an analogy. In India, We have LOK-SABHA & RAJYA-SABHA. And a party needs to have the majority in Both LOK-SABHA & RAJYA-SABHA. Then only if they want to bring ANY IMPORTANT BILL'S. Bill has to be passed through Both the Sabhas.

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Same way,


In the US they have " House " & " SENATE ". For the last 12 years, if the House is with One Party, the Senate was with Other Party. That was the reason why a lot of Bill's got delayed. Even you may remember once Even the US Government was Shut Down for a few weeks. The Government servants were asked not to come to office and such is the TUG OF WAR the two parties there DEMOCRATS & REPUBLICANS. 

We also see every time the negotiation between Democrats & Republicans are going on, they have not agreed, that is why the US STIMULUS has not come and it keeps extending. Even the last Friday there was supposed to be an agreement but there was no agreement again it is extended.

The bills can be passed very easily ONLY if Both " HOUSE & SENATE " are with the Same Party. Now this year the Democrats have won the Elections JOE BIDEN will be THE PRESIDENT from next year onwards. 

But, The problems still remain. The House Democrats have the majority in Senate they don't have the majority. 

The Senate has got 100 Seats, out that 100 = Republicans has 50 seats, Democrats have 46 seats and Two People are Independent and Both the Independent are mostly Supporting Democrats. So, we can say... 
 Democrats have 48 seats

Republicans = 50 , Democrats = 48.

Still, 2 more seats are left. For those 2 seats, there is going to be an ELECTION ON JANUARY 5 2021. That election outcome can be a very very " EVENT RISK THE MARKETS".
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First, let us discuss both cases. Assume that Democrats lose, That means in Senate Republicans have the majority. In House, Democrats have the majority. This Tug of war will continue for another 4 years. The Bills can not be pass so easily. 
 

Whether you like it or not, The US is the MOTHER MARKET & when Mother Market having lots of  Uncertainties, All over the World Markets will follow the same thing.
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Now we look at the second scenario, In Case Both seats are won by Democrats then what will happen. In Senate Democrats will be 50 Republicans will also have 50


Again there is a key risk, The Two Independents as of now they are supporting Democrats. There is no guarantee that they will support Democrats on every issue for the next 4 years. But as of now, we assume that those Independent will support Democrats. So in that case, Both Republicans & Democrats will have 50 seats each. 
 
If any Bill comes to Senate, there will be 50-50. That's a TIE

So, as per The US Constitution if there is a Tie. The VICE PRESIDENT will have 1 VOTE.


VICE PRESIDENT Kamala Harris is from Democrats. So I am sure she will vote in favour of Democrats only.
 

So, in that case, all the Bills can be pass very smoothly.

What the Country from Faced Last 12 Years and next 4 years things change for a good change.

So, on January 5 the 2 seats ( Senates seats Georgia ) are going to be a "KEY EVENT" FOR THE STOCK MARKETS ALL OVER THE WORLD.

But, if Republicans win 1 seat majority goes to Republicans, And this problem will continue for the next 4 years. And in case if both the seats are win by Democrats. 

THEN WE EXPECT ONE MORE BIG RALLY ALL OVER THE WORLD

UNTIL THEN FINGERS CROSS & WAIT FOR JANUARY 5

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