Pre-Market Report, November 27, 2020

 Pre-Market Report :

  • Yesterday US markets were closed.
  • Asian markets are mixed.
  • European and US futures are down slightly.
  • SGX Nifty is up slightly.
  • After one day of pause, resumed their buying.
  • FIIs have bought for Rs 2027 crores.
  • But DIIs have sold for Rs 3400 crores which is much higher than FII buy figure.
  • But markets were up, as people have shorted heavily the day before.
  • November series, Nifty low was 11500 and high was 13150.
  • FIIs have pumped in nearly Rs 60K crores, the highest ever monthly flow.
  • On average, world markets were up by 10 to 12%.
  • Bank Nifty outperformed.
  • The most interesting thing about October, November rally is that Nifty is up by more than 20% and Reliance, the highest weighted stock, is down by more than 20%.
  • The December series begins with huge optimism.
  • Usually markets correct when a series begins with huge optimism.
  • Number one, Nifty has already moved more than 20% in the last two months and Bank Nifty moved about 50%.
  • Second, FIIs can not keep pumping money this forever. We have seen how markets fell on Wednesday when FIIs just paused. What would have happened if they have sold?
  • Three, usually December month is a profit booking month for FIIs due to account closure as they work with Jan-Dec Financial year.
  • FIIs long position is at 77% in Futures while short positions are at 23%.
  • This is one of the highest long-short ratios.
  • Usually markets correct when this ratio is high.
  • Today evening GDP data will be out.
  • But that is a lag indicator, markets ignore.
  • I am planning to take some short positions in Bank Nifty if Bank Nifty touched 30K.
  • Planning at average shorts at every 1000 point move.
  • Will also hedge through Options.
  • The December series is a 5-week series.
  • Usually 5-week series is not good for Option writers.
  • Markets tend to move all over the places.
  • Nifty future may trade between 12950 and 13150.

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